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Bulletin of Volcanology
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Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment at Kolumbo submarine volcano

Authors: Tadini, Alessandro; Cerminara, Matteo; Paris, Raphaël; Neri, Augusto; Sparks, R. Stephen J.; Vougioukalakis, Georges; Koutroulli, Anna; +1 Authors

Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment at Kolumbo submarine volcano

Abstract

Abstract Volcanic-induced tsunamis have a potentially devastating impact, especially in densely populated and/or touristic coastal areas. Kolumbo submarine volcano (Greece) experienced in 1650 CE an explosive eruption with eyewitnesses’ accounts of major tsunamis along the coasts of Santorini (Thera) and other islands. We present a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment at this volcano based on existing simulations from literature and new simulations of tsunamis triggered by a less investigated but important mechanism, i.e., submarine landslides on the volcano flanks or within its crater. Simulation results show that the remobilization of a landslide volume of 150–300 Mm 3 inside the crater can produce tsunami waves larger than 10 m high along the NE coast of Thera and of the order of 5 m along the E and SE coasts. The expected tsunami arrival time ranges from 2 to 3 min along the NE coast of Thera up to 8–10 min on its SE coast. Such scenarios produce inundation areas consistent with those reconstructed for the 1650 CE event and tsunami waves propagating inland at velocities from 2 to 12 m/s. Simulation results also suggest that, given the landslide parameters assumed, it is unlikely that such a large volume landslide would mobilize from the SW-facing Kolumbo crater slopes given the relatively gentle topo-bathymetry of this area. The study findings are part of a broader project which includes a structured expert judgment on different hazard-related topics, including tsunami. The outcomes of this latter, which indicate that the chances of having waves larger than 1 m high on the NE coast of Thera have median probabilities of 50–60%, are relevant to the results of the present study.

Country
France
Keywords

1650 CE eruption, tsunami hazard, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], numerical simulation, [SDU.STU.VO] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-COMP-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Computational Physics [physics.comp-ph], Kolumbo volcano (Greece), [SPI.GCIV.RISQ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid