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The reciprocal relation between rising longevity and temperature-related mortality risk in older people, Spain 1980–2018

Authors: LLOYD, Simon J.; STRIESSNIG, Erich; Aburto, José Manuel; ACHEBAK, Hicham; HAJAT, Shakoor; MUTTARAK, Raya; QUIJAL-ZAMORANO, Marcos; +2 Authors

The reciprocal relation between rising longevity and temperature-related mortality risk in older people, Spain 1980–2018

Abstract

Temperature-related mortality mostly affects older people and is attributable to a combination of factors. We focussed on a key non-temperature factor - rising longevity - and aimed to quantify its reciprocal relation with temperature-related mortality risk in Spain over 1980-2018. We obtained average annual temperature-attributable deaths among people aged 65y+, by sex and age group, for different temperature ranges (extreme cold, moderate cold, moderate heat, and extreme heat), from a previous study. Combining this with population and mortality data as well as life table information, we used: (i) a counterfactual approach to assess the contribution of rising longevity to changes in the absolute risk of temperature-related mortality, and (ii) decomposition to assess the contribution of changes in temperature-related mortality to changes in longevity and its variation (lifespan inequality). Rising longevity led to considerable declines in the absolute risk of temperature-related mortality in females and males across the entire temperature range. For extreme heat, it accounted for about a 30% decrease in absolute risk (half of the total decrease over the study period). For moderate and extreme cold, it accounted for about a 20% fall in absolute risk (a quarter of the total fall). In the opposite direction, changing patterns of temperature-related deaths contributed to higher life expectancy (accounting for > 20% of the total rise in both females and males) but also higher lifespan inequality amongst older people. Most of the influence (about 80%) was via moderate cold, but declines in risk at both moderate and extreme heat led to small rises in life expectancy. Our study points to the benefits of adopting risk-reduction strategies that aim, not only at modifying hazards and reducing exposure, but that also address socially-generated vulnerability among older people. This includes ensuring that lifespans lengthen primarily through increases in years lived in good health.

Keywords

504006 Demography, Cold Temperature/adverse effects, Male, Hot Temperature, Longevity, 303007 Epidemiologie, Life Expectancy, 303007 Epidemiology, Heat-related mortality, 80 and over, Hot Temperature/adverse effects, Climate change, Humans, GE1-350, Mortality, Life Expectancy/trends, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, 504006 Demographie, Cold-related mortality, Temperature, Mortality/trends, Environmental sciences, Cold Temperature, Spain, Spain/epidemiology, Female, Older people

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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