
Temperature-related mortality mostly affects older people and is attributable to a combination of factors. We focussed on a key non-temperature factor - rising longevity - and aimed to quantify its reciprocal relation with temperature-related mortality risk in Spain over 1980-2018. We obtained average annual temperature-attributable deaths among people aged 65y+, by sex and age group, for different temperature ranges (extreme cold, moderate cold, moderate heat, and extreme heat), from a previous study. Combining this with population and mortality data as well as life table information, we used: (i) a counterfactual approach to assess the contribution of rising longevity to changes in the absolute risk of temperature-related mortality, and (ii) decomposition to assess the contribution of changes in temperature-related mortality to changes in longevity and its variation (lifespan inequality). Rising longevity led to considerable declines in the absolute risk of temperature-related mortality in females and males across the entire temperature range. For extreme heat, it accounted for about a 30% decrease in absolute risk (half of the total decrease over the study period). For moderate and extreme cold, it accounted for about a 20% fall in absolute risk (a quarter of the total fall). In the opposite direction, changing patterns of temperature-related deaths contributed to higher life expectancy (accounting for > 20% of the total rise in both females and males) but also higher lifespan inequality amongst older people. Most of the influence (about 80%) was via moderate cold, but declines in risk at both moderate and extreme heat led to small rises in life expectancy. Our study points to the benefits of adopting risk-reduction strategies that aim, not only at modifying hazards and reducing exposure, but that also address socially-generated vulnerability among older people. This includes ensuring that lifespans lengthen primarily through increases in years lived in good health.
504006 Demography, Cold Temperature/adverse effects, Male, Hot Temperature, Longevity, 303007 Epidemiologie, Life Expectancy, 303007 Epidemiology, Heat-related mortality, 80 and over, Hot Temperature/adverse effects, Climate change, Humans, GE1-350, Mortality, Life Expectancy/trends, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, 504006 Demographie, Cold-related mortality, Temperature, Mortality/trends, Environmental sciences, Cold Temperature, Spain, Spain/epidemiology, Female, Older people
504006 Demography, Cold Temperature/adverse effects, Male, Hot Temperature, Longevity, 303007 Epidemiologie, Life Expectancy, 303007 Epidemiology, Heat-related mortality, 80 and over, Hot Temperature/adverse effects, Climate change, Humans, GE1-350, Mortality, Life Expectancy/trends, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, 504006 Demographie, Cold-related mortality, Temperature, Mortality/trends, Environmental sciences, Cold Temperature, Spain, Spain/epidemiology, Female, Older people
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