
Wind energy as one of the most promising energy alternatives brings a set of serious challenges in the operation of power systems because of the uncertain nature of wind speed. To address this problem, it is essential to establish a framework to forecast a comprehensive form of information about the wind speed. To this end, an ensemble residual regression deep network is designed to understand fully time-variant and spatial features from the historical data including wind speed and corresponding meteorological data. Then, to enhance the accuracy, a modified error-based loss function is proposed. Consequently, to provide a comprehensive form of information, a modified kernel density estimator is proposed to extract a set of probability density functions (PDFs) with a high level of accuracy and reliability. The simulation results and a comparative analysis on an actual dataset in London, U.K. demonstrate the high capability of the proposed probabilistic wind speed approach.
modified kernel density estimation, probability density function (PDF), residual deep network, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Wind speed prediction, TK1-9971
modified kernel density estimation, probability density function (PDF), residual deep network, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Wind speed prediction, TK1-9971
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