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Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta
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Article . 2016
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Article . 2016
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Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta
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EVALUATION OF WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS

Authors: Valery I. Salygin; Igor I. Litvinyuk;

EVALUATION OF WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS

Abstract

What are the future global systems developments? It remains one the biggest unknown, especially in terms of energy, as it is globally considered as both cause and solution for multiple problems of the humanity. Therefore, nowadays a number of experts are exploring driving forces, critical uncertainties and unknowns that have an influence on future energy systems development. This article aims at providing a brief investigation of existing world energy scenarios that cover the range of plausible outcomes of future global energy system development. Those are represented by International Energy Agency, World Energy Council, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and others. The analysis covers both qualitative and quantitative indicators of the world energy system development that provide for future worldview formation. The article looks into various approaches to energy system development forecasting and scenario building employed by the abovementioned organisations, and discovers the motives for making assumptions as the means of attaining internal targets and the consequences of the distinction of individual attitude to the development trends within the expert community. The current assessment implies grouping of the most advanced of the existing energy system development models, identification their advantages and disadvantages, and shows differences in modeling approaches used in a number of specialized international organisations.

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Keywords

прогнозирование, энергетический баланс, energy resources, энергетическая безопасность, forecasting, устойчивое развитие, сценарии, modelling, energy consumption, fueland energy complex, energy security, sustainable development, scenarios, энергоресурсы, моделирование, структура энергопотребления, JZ2-6530, энергетика, международные организации, ТЭК, energy mix, International relations, energy

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold