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Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function

Authors: Li, Yan-Fu; Zio, Enrico;

A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function

Abstract

The current and future developments of electric power systems are pushing the boundaries of reliability assessment to consider distribution networks with renewable generators. Given the stochastic features of these elements, most modeling approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation. The computational costs associated to the simulation approach force to treating mostly small-sized systems, i.e. with a limited number of lumped components of a given renewable technology (e.g. wind or solar, etc.) whose behavior is described by a binary state, working or failed. In this paper, we propose an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG). The approach allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system. Multiple states are used to describe the randomness in the generation units, due to the stochastic nature of the generation sources and of the mechanical degradation/failure behavior of the generation systems. The universal generating function (UGF) technique is used for the individual component multi-state modeling. A multiplication-type composition operator is introduced to combine the UGFs for the mechanical degradation and renewable generation source states into the UGF of the renewable generator power output. The overall multi-state DG system UGF is then constructed and classical reliability indices (e.g. loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS)) are computed from the DG system generation and load UGFs. An application of the model is shown on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder.

Keywords

[INFO.INFO-PF]Computer Science [cs]/Performance [cs.PF], Multi-state modeling, Universal generating function, [INFO.INFO-PF] Computer Science [cs]/Performance [cs.PF], [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, Reliability assessment, Distributed generation, [SPI.NRJ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
142
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
Green
bronze