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Statistics in Medicine
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Spatial modeling of individual‐level infectious disease transmission: Tuberculosis data in Manitoba, Canada

Spatial modeling of individual-level infectious disease transmission: tuberculosis data in Manitoba, Canada
Authors: Leila Amiri; Mahmoud Torabi; Rob Deardon; Michael Pickles;

Spatial modeling of individual‐level infectious disease transmission: Tuberculosis data in Manitoba, Canada

Abstract

Geographically dependent individual level models (GD‐ILMs) are a class of statistical models that can be used to study the spread of infectious disease through a population in discrete‐time in which covariates can be measured both at individual and area levels. The typical ILMs to illustrate spatial data are based on the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals. A key feature of GD‐ILMs is that they take into account the spatial location of the individuals in addition to the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals. As a motivation of this article, we consider tuberculosis (TB) data which is an infectious disease which can be transmitted through individuals. It is also known that certain areas/demographics/communities have higher prevalent of TB (see Section 4 for more details). It is also of interest of policy makers to identify those areas with higher infectivity rate of TB for possible preventions. Therefore, we need to analyze this data properly to address those concerns. In this article, the expectation conditional maximization algorithm is proposed for estimating the parameters of GD‐ILMs to be able to predict the areas with the highest average infectivity rates of TB. We also evaluate the performance of our proposed approach through some simulations. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed method provides reliable estimates of parameters which confirms accuracy of the infectivity rates.

Keywords

Canada, Models, Statistical, 330, Statistics & Probability, 0104 Statistics, 610, conditional autoregressive model, Manitoba, Statistical, Communicable Diseases, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, Models, Humans, Tuberculosis, susceptible-infected-removed model, expectation conditional maximization algorithm, individual-level models

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green