
We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for different behaviours across various times or regimes. To establish our framework, we initially construct a model with random parameters, where the switching between regimes can be dictated either by random variables or deterministically. Such a model is highly interpretable. We further ensure mathematical consistency by demonstrating that the framework can be elegantly expressed through local volatility models taking the form of standard jump diffusions. Additionally, we consider a Markov-modulated approach for the switching between regimes characterised by random parameters. For all considered models, we derive characteristic functions, providing a versatile tool with wide-ranging applications. In a numerical experiment, we apply the framework to the financial problem of option pricing. The impact of parameter uncertainty is analysed in a two-regime model, where the asset process switches between periods of high and low volatility imbued with high and low uncertainty, respectively.
Numerical Analysis, General Computer Science, Local volatility, Applied Mathematics, Computational Finance (q-fin.CP), Theoretical Computer Science, FOS: Economics and business, Quantitative Finance - Computational Finance, Sciences actuarielles, Modelling and Simulation, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Taverne, Switching, 91G20 91G30, Pricing of Securities (q-fin.PR), Asset modelling, Quantitative Finance - Pricing of Securities, Markov-modulation, Randomisation, Quantitative Finance - Risk Management
Numerical Analysis, General Computer Science, Local volatility, Applied Mathematics, Computational Finance (q-fin.CP), Theoretical Computer Science, FOS: Economics and business, Quantitative Finance - Computational Finance, Sciences actuarielles, Modelling and Simulation, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Taverne, Switching, 91G20 91G30, Pricing of Securities (q-fin.PR), Asset modelling, Quantitative Finance - Pricing of Securities, Markov-modulation, Randomisation, Quantitative Finance - Risk Management
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