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The Science of The Total Environment
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Article . 2016
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Multimedia & PBPK modelling with MERLIN-Expo versus biomonitoring for assessing Pb exposure of pre-school children in a residential setting

Authors: Fierens, Tine; van Holderbeke, Mirja; Standaert, Arnout; Cornelis, Christa; Brochot, Céline; Ciffroy, Philippe; Johansson, Erik; +1 Authors

Multimedia & PBPK modelling with MERLIN-Expo versus biomonitoring for assessing Pb exposure of pre-school children in a residential setting

Abstract

This paper reports on a case study - conducted within the European FP7 project "4FUN" - focusing on exposure of pre-school children to lead resulting from past emissions by non-ferrous smelters in Belgium (Northern Campine area). Exposure scenarios were constructed and simulated with the MERLIN-Expo tool to estimate external Pb exposure as well as the Pb body burden in children living in the vicinity of the former industrial sites as compared to children living in adjacent areas and a reference area. Simulations were run for several scenarios ranging from very simple to rather complex in order to study the effect of different simulation approaches (e.g., deterministic vs. probabilistic, individual vs. aggregated population exposure) and different exposure scenarios (e.g., with vs. without considering local food consumption or time activity patterns) on the model outcomes (predicted concentrations of Pb in environmental and human matrices). This paper discusses the two most complex scenarios, namely exposure at the aggregated population level and at the individual level for a random sub-sample of subjects, respectively. In the final and most realistic exposure scenario, simulating individual lead exposure, model predictions were shown to be higher than the biomonitoring data. Blood Pb levels in children, irrespective of the area they lived in, were overpredicted by MERLIN-Expo with a factor of about 2 on average. The model predictions for individual children overlap with the prediction interval calculated by MERLIN-Expo based on population averages, demonstrating the use of probabilistic approaches in risk assessment. While these results constitute a first verification of the model performance of MERLIN-Expo dealing with inorganic pollutants in a complex real-world exposure scenario and a demonstration of the robustness of the modelling tool, further validation and benchmarking efforts are required for a larger number of inorganic pollutants and different exposure settings.

Keywords

Environmental Exposure, EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT, Models, Biological, 333, LEAD, [SDV.TOX] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Toxicology, Random Allocation, MERLIN-EXPO, MODEL VALIDATION, Belgium, Lead, Multimedia, Residence Characteristics, [SDV.TOX]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Toxicology, Child, Preschool, Metallurgy, Humans, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, Environmental Pollutants, HISTORICAL POLLUTION, Environmental Monitoring

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
18
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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