Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Juelich Shared Elect...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
HAL INRAE
Article . 2023
Data sources: HAL INRAE
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
versions View all 4 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

Comparison of Three Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasts for the Extreme July 2021 Flooding Event in Germany

Authors: Saadi, Mohamed; Furusho-Percot, Carina; Belleflamme, Alexandre; Trömel, Silke; Kollet, Stefan; Reinoso-Rondinel, Ricardo;

Comparison of Three Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasts for the Extreme July 2021 Flooding Event in Germany

Abstract

Abstract Quantitative precipitation nowcasts (QPN) can improve the accuracy of flood forecasts, especially for lead times up to 12 h, but their evaluation depends on a variety of factors, namely, the choice of the hydrological model and the benchmark. We tested three precipitation nowcasting techniques based on radar observations for the disastrous mid-July 2021 event in seven German catchments (140–1670 km2). Two deterministic [advection-based and spectral prognosis (S-PROG)] and one probabilistic [Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS)] QPN with a maximum lead time of 3 h were used as input to two hydrological models: a physically based, 3D-distributed model (ParFlowCLM) and a conceptual, lumped model (GR4H). We quantified the hydrological added value of QPN compared with hydrological persistence and zero-precipitation nowcasts as benchmarks. For the 14 July 2021 event, we obtained the following key results. 1) According to the quality of the forecasted hydrographs, exploiting QPN improved the lead times by up to 4 h (8 h) compared with adopting zero-precipitation nowcasts (hydrological persistence) as a benchmark. Using a skill-based approach, obtained improvements were up to 7–12 h depending on the benchmark. 2) The three QPN techniques obtained similar performances regardless of the applied hydrological model. 3) Using zero-precipitation nowcasts instead of hydrological persistence as benchmark reduced the added value of QPN. These results highlight the need for combining a skill-based approach with an analysis of the quality of forecasted hydrographs to rigorously estimate the added value of QPN.

Countries
Germany, France
Keywords

Hydrologic models, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, 550, Extreme events, Model evaluation/performance, Flood events, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Nowcasting, Ensembles

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    3
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green