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Journal of Biological Dynamics
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Journal of Biological Dynamics
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Journal of Biological Dynamics
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Evaluating different epidemiological models with the identical basic reproduction number ℛ0

Authors: Fan Bai;

Evaluating different epidemiological models with the identical basic reproduction number ℛ0

Abstract

Epidemiological models with the identical basic reproduction number R0 may behave differently on both short time scale and long time scale. In this paper, we compare the predicted final sizes for several deterministic epidemic models and estimate the probabilities of a minor/major outbreak for continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models, all epidemic models have the identical R0 . It is proved that the final size predicted by the epidemic model with homogeneous mixing is larger than with heterogeneous mixing. For CTMC models with heterogeneous mixing, the probabilities of a minor outbreak initiated by superspreaders and non-superspreaders are calculated and compared. For both deterministic modelling and stochastic modelling, numerical simulations are performed to support the mathematical analysis.

Keywords

probability of a minor outbreak, stochastic simulation algorithm, QH301-705.5, final epidemic size, Basic Reproduction Number, Infections, Models, Biological, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, GE1-350, Computer Simulation, Biology (General), deterministic modelling, Epidemics, Probability, Behavior, Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted, Markov Chains, Environmental sciences, continuous-time markov chain models, Disease Susceptibility

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold
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