Adjacent segment degeneration (ASD) is one of the major complications after lumbar fusion. Several studies have evaluated the risk factors of ASD. Although the paraspinal muscles play an important role in spine stability, no study has assessed the relationship between paraspinal muscle atrophy and the incidence of ASD after lumbar fusion.In the present study, we aimed to verify the known risk factors of ASD, such as body mass index (BMI), preoperative adjacent facet joint degeneration, and disc degeneration, and to assess the relationship between paraspinal muscle atrophy and ASD.This is a retrospective 1:1 pair analysis matched by age, sex, fusion level, and follow-up period.To calculate the appropriate sample size for the study, we performed a pre-study analysis of the paraspinal muscle cross-sectional area (CSA), and estimated that at least 35 cases would be needed for each group. Among the 510 patients who underwent posterior lumbar fusion for degenerative lumbar disease between January 2009 and October 2009, a total of 50 patients with ASD after surgery were selected. Another group of 50 matched patients with degenerative lumbar disease without ASD after spinal fusion were selected as the control group. Each patient in the ASD group was matched with a control patient according to age, sex, fusion level, and follow-up period.Radiographic measurements and demographic data were reviewed.The risk factors considered were higher BMI, preoperative adjacent segment disc and facet degeneration, and preoperative paraspinal muscle atrophy and fatty degeneration. The radiographic data were compared between the ASD and control groups to determine the predictive factors of ASD after posterior lumbar fusion by using logistic regression analysis. The study was not externally funded. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that higher BMI (odds ratio [OR]: 1.353, p=.008), preoperative facet degeneration on computed tomography examination (OR: 3.075, p=.011), disc degeneration on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (OR: 2.783, p=.003), fatty degeneration (OR: 1.080, p=.044), and a smaller relative CSA of the paraspinal muscle preoperatively (OR: 0.083, p=.003) were significant factors for predicting the development of ASD.The occurrence of radiological ASD is most likely multifactorial, and is associated with a higher BMI, preexisting facet and disc degeneration on preoperative examination, and a smaller preoperative relative CSA of the paraspinal muscle on MRI.