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Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
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Article . 2019
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A Statistical Recurrent Stochastic Volatility Model for Stock Markets

Authors: Nguyen, Trong-Nghia; Tran, Minh-Ngoc; Gunawan, David; Kohn, R.;

A Statistical Recurrent Stochastic Volatility Model for Stock Markets

Abstract

The stochastic volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector, while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of deep learning. We combine these two methods in a nontrivial way and propose a model, which we call the statistical recurrent stochastic volatility (SR-SV) model, to capture the dynamics of stochastic volatility. The proposed model is able to capture complex volatility effects, for example, nonlinearity and long-memory auto-dependence, overlooked by the conventional SV models, is statistically interpretable and has an impressive out-of-sample forecast performance. These properties are carefully discussed and illustrated through extensive simulation studies and applications to five international stock index datasets: the German stock index DAX30, the Hong Kong stock index HSI50, the France market index CAC40, the U.S. stock market index SP500 and the Canada market index TSX250. An user-friendly software package together with the examples reported in the article are available at https://github.com/vbayeslab.

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Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Statistics - Machine Learning, Econometrics (econ.EM), Machine Learning (stat.ML), Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
bronze