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Tanzania Journal of Science
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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Wind Speed Forecasting Using Wavelet Analysis and Recurrent Artificial Neural Networks Based on Local Measurements in Singida Region, Tanzania

Authors: Mangara, Rajabu J.; Kumwenda, Mwingereza J.;

Wind Speed Forecasting Using Wavelet Analysis and Recurrent Artificial Neural Networks Based on Local Measurements in Singida Region, Tanzania

Abstract

High accuracy wind speed forecasting is essential for wind energy harvest and plays a significant role in wind farm management and grid integration. Wind speed is intermittent in nature, which makes the forecasting to be a big challenge. In the present study, three hybrid single-step wind speed forecasting techniques are proposed and tested by local measurement data in Singida region, Tanzania. The three techniques are based on Wavelet Analysis (WA), Back Propagation (BP) optimization algorithm, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). They are referred to as WA-RNN, BP-RNN, and WA-BP-RNN. The model results showed that WA-BP-RNN outperforms the other two proposed techniques, with minimum statistical errors of 0.56 m/s (BIAS), 6.89% (MAPE) and 0.53 m/s (RMSE). Furthermore, the WA-BP-RNN technique has shown highest correlation value of 0.95, which indicates that, the strength of a linear association between the observed and forecasted dataset of the wind speed. In addition, the deployment of the BP optimization algorithm in the proposed technique showed improvements of the model results.

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Keywords

Recurrent Neural Network, Back Propagation algorithm, Wavelet analysis, Wind speed, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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