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South East European Journal of Economics and Business
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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The Nexus Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility in the CEE-3 Countries

Authors: Arifenur Güngör; Mahmut Sami Güngör;

The Nexus Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility in the CEE-3 Countries

Abstract

Abstract A stock market plays a pivotal role in a financial system and is monitored as a yardstick of a healthy economy. It is a stylized fact that there is a positive and significant relationship between financial development and economic growth. However, emerging markets often exhibit more volatile returns than developed markets, and extreme volatility might prevent financial stability. The literature underlines the role of uncertainty in predicting volatility and suggests a strong positive association between economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility. Against this backdrop, this study examines the dynamic nature of relationships between economic policy uncertainty (in Germany and the US) and long-run stock market volatility of CEE-3 (Central and Eastern European: the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) countries. This study follows two steps in empirical analysis. First, it obtains long-run stock market volatility and then estimates dynamic regression models. The evidence shows a positive and significant one-period lagged impact of economic policy uncertainty on long-run stock market volatility.

Country
Turkey
Keywords

Economics and Econometrics, Social Sciences and Humanities, Social Sciences (Soc), long-run volatility, Economics, Sosyal Bilimler ve Beşeri Bilimler, Ekonomi, Ekonometri ve Finans (çeşitli), Economics & Business, Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous), İktisat, Uluslararası İktisat, Genel Ekonomi, Ekonometri ve Finans, Ekonomi ve Ekonometri, Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler, International Economics, Sosyal Bilimler (Soc), Ekonomi Ve İş, Social Sciences & Humanities, Ekonomi, uncertainty, General Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Emerging stock markets

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold