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Mathematics
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Mathematics
Article . 2022
Data sources: DOAJ
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Applications of the Delay Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (DSSA) in Mathematical Epidemiology

Authors: Bai, Fan;

Applications of the Delay Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (DSSA) in Mathematical Epidemiology

Abstract

The calculation of the probability of a minor outbreak is crucial in analyzing a stochastic epidemic model. For stochastic epidemic models with fixed delays, the linear chain trick is applied to transform the delayed models into a family of ODE models with increasing shape parameters. We then prove that the well-established results on the probability of a minor outbreak for continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) epidemic models also hold for the stochastic epidemic models with fixed delays. All theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations implemented by the delay stochastic simulation algorithm (DSSA) in Python. It is shown that DSSA is able to generate exact realizations for underlying delayed models in the context of mathematical epidemiology, and therefore, provides insights into the effect of delays during the outbreak phases of epidemics.

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Keywords

delay differential equations; stochastic epidemic models with delays; probability of a minor epidemic outbreak; Markov chain; branching process; numerical methods; delay stochastic simulation algorithm, delay differential equations, stochastic epidemic models with delays, Markov chain, numerical methods, QA1-939, probability of a minor epidemic outbreak, Mathematics, branching process

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
gold