
This repository contains the data, plotting code, and figures used to produceall results and figures in Broekgaarden (2026), "Lower Your Rates: On Claimsof a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis." The paper compiles and updates local merger-rate predictions (z ≈ 0,in Gpc⁻³ yr⁻¹) for binary black holes (BH-BH), neutron star–black holes(NS-BH), and binary neutron stars (NS-NS) from 72 isolated binary-evolutionstudies published between 2010 and 2026, comprising 4194 individual submodelrealizations. These are compared to observational constraints from theLIGO–Virgo–KAGRA Collaboration (GWTC-2 through GWTC-5). The compilation isused to assess recent claims of a universal tension between isolated binaryevolution and the observed local BBH merger rate. The repository is organized into three directories: data/ — CSV rate catalogs for nine formation channels (isolated binaryevolution, chemically homogeneous evolution, globular clusters, nuclearclusters, young stellar clusters, triples, flybys, Population III stars,and primordial black holes), plus observational constraints fromgravitational-wave detections, kilonovae, Galactic pulsars, and short GRBs.The main catalog (isolated-binary-evolution.csv) contains ~4500 rows, one perstudy/submodel prediction, with columns for compact object type, code,merger-rate density, and physics-assumption parameters (alpha_CE, sigma_kick,beta_MT, lambda_CE, remnant mass prescription, stellar tracks, etc.). Acompanion relationships table (isolated-binary-evolution_relationships.csv)encodes pairwise single-parameter-variation connections between submodels anddrives the interactive merger-rate table. Raw per-study extracted data andingestion scripts are in data/individual_extracted_data/. plotting_code/ — Python scripts and a Jupyter notebook(Make_figures_COC_rates.ipynb) that reproduce all paper figures and theinteractive merger-rate table from the CSV catalogs. Key modules includeplot_rates.py (matplotlib rate and CDF/violin plots), make_interactive_figures.py(Plotly interactive rate plots), and merger_rate_table.py (interactive HTMLtable with filtering by DCO type, parameter family, and rate limit). figures/ — Generated PDF/PNG figures and standalone interactive HTML outputs,including the interactive merger-rate table (merger_rate_table.html). The supplementary material documenting rate extractions for each study isprovided as lower-your-rates-supplementary_material.pdf. The interactive online version of the compiled rate table is available athttps://floorbroekgaarden.github.io/lower-your-rates/ For questions or suggestions for additional literature, please contact:fbroekgaarden@ucsd.edu
gravitational waves, stellar evolution, population synthesis, merger rates
gravitational waves, stellar evolution, population synthesis, merger rates
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