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L'efficacité de la politique monétaire et la transition du régime de change au Maroc : scénarisation par un modèle semi-structurel

Authors: LAKHCHEN, Faïçal; HACHIMI ALAOUI, M. El-Hassan;

L'efficacité de la politique monétaire et la transition du régime de change au Maroc : scénarisation par un modèle semi-structurel

Abstract

Cet article se propose de comparer l'efficacité de la politique monétaires dans le régime de change actuellement en vigueur au Maroc, par rapport à un scénario de régime de change flexible. Cette scénarisation est rendue possible grâce à la calibration d'un modèle semi-structurel qui adopte les enseignements théoriques nouveaux-keynésiens, tout en s'adaptant aux spécificités de l'économie marocaine. Les simulations que permet ce modèle mènent à conclure sur : (1) Un ajustement plus rapide de l'économie vers son équilibre dans un régime de change flexible que dans un régime de change fixe. (2) Une sévérité accrue des chocs sur l'économie dans le cas d'un régime de change flexible (3) En présence d'une parfaite mobilité des capitaux dans le régime de change flexible, la politique monétaire se révèle être efficace en stabilisant l'inflation de manière relativement rapide. Cependant, cet avantage est contrebalancé par une accentuation de la volatilité du cycle économique. 

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Keywords

Politique monétaire; Taux de change; Modèle semi-structurel; Economie marocaine; Régime de change, Politique monétaire; Taux de change; Modèle semi-structurel; Economie marocaine; Régime de change.

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
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