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Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory

Authors: Esponda, Ignacio; Vespa, Emanuel;

Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory

Abstract

Abstract We present an experimental framework to study the extent to which failures of contingent thinking explain classic anomalies in a broad class of environments, including overbidding in auctions and the Ellsberg paradox. We study environments in which the subject’s choices affect payoffs only in some states but not in others. We find that anomalies are in large part driven by incongruences between choices in the standard presentation of each problem and a “contingent” presentation, which focuses the subject on the set of states where her actions matter. Additional evidence suggests that this phenomenon is in large part driven by people’s failure to put themselves in states that have not yet happened even though they are made aware that their actions only matter in those states.

Country
United States
Keywords

Economic theory, Economics, Applied Economics, Applied economics, Econometrics

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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