
Available together with the teaser. ...Even only 1/2 of the mathematical 'Method A' is a method inside the method; it does not let get very precise results, but is enough to test and debunk any age structure -if it is not composed of truly premature deaths, showing a degree of inconsistencies; no external medical opinion is needed, as opinions are the weakest potential counterarguments against pure mathematics and logic. Sensitivity tests incorporating potential disease-specific risk factors (its severity and prevalence), for every* CCW-listed disease (*with the potential exception of Alzheimer's Disease and another type of Dementia), show that such adjustments cannot decrease the observed inconsistencies (concerns Covid-19 in the U.S.); on the contrary, they would strengthen the required impossibly huge suppression of mortality in healthier subgroups (of an age group), bolstering that the official structure diverges strongly from biological and actuarial patterns, and making necessary to decrease the total average age of victims yet more to counteract. To make the construction yet better we finally took into accout 'a share of men seeking care (IfR x severe fraction) to a share of women seeking care' (M/F), which 'M/F' was ~1.15 for aged 85+, ~1.30 for aged 75-84, but huge ~1.55 for aged 65-74, ~ 1.25 for aged 55-64. The effect of a smaller share of men having high numbers of CCW-listed conditions is weaker than the contrary effect of men having a smaller RLE, for the same number of conditions. ...The methods are new ideas. Even something as simple as the relationship between average age and the number of conditions in premature virus-driven deaths probably has never been considered by anyone (a starting point for the easier and shortest 'Method C'), what the history of flu research shows. For a high selectivity, shown as a high average age, there must be seen a much increased average number of conditions too; for a specific age, shares of younger and older ones are external data. RLE at any age depends on the number of chronic conditions, but RLE as low as 1. ...Comparative data concerning the pre-pandemic normal prevalences of conditions in U.S. society, at different ages, are based on CMS and ICD-coded, often extrapolated with e.g. NHANES; the average %-prevalence of later added CCW conditions is higher, 9 is less than half of the older 2008-CCW conditions, but still the new 9 weight just over 0.6 of the older ones, for the detailed age structure of 'official Covid-19 victims
EXTENDED ABSTRACT plus SUPPLEMENT Restricted (5 pages) ... Method A: A structural collapse test using Residual Life Expectancy (RLE) at death and Mortality Difference (MD) across age bands; referred to background data (Population Pyramid, morbidity in different age groups of the population, shares of highly multimorbid ones, illness rates, etc.). E.g. for the U.S., it starts with the official structure of 'Covid-19 deaths' and happens to demonstrate it was by far impossible for premature deaths, as it would require mathematical contradictions even as high as: '3 > 20'. The Risk Multiplier Total (RMT), which intensifies the contradictions, is explained. It is calculated by how much the age-groups' shares would have to be changed (and the average age decreased) to make the contradictions disappear. A small correction for aged 250 - 300 pages. VitalStats@proton.me
Covid-19, estimators, math-logic method.
Covid-19, estimators, math-logic method.
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