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Deciphering Pre-solar-storm Features Of September-2017 Storm From Global And Local Dynamics

Authors: Breno; Mausumi; , Aimee; , Andre; , Scott; , Christopher; , David;

Deciphering Pre-solar-storm Features Of September-2017 Storm From Global And Local Dynamics

Abstract

We investigate whether global toroid patterns and local magnetic field topology of solar active region AR12673 together can hindcast occurrence of the biggest X-flare of solar cycle(SC) 24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow latitude-belts warped in longitude, in which active regions are tightly stringed) derived from surface distribution of active regions, prior/during AR12673 emergence, reveal that the portions of South-toroid containing AR12673 was not tipped-away from its North-toroid counterpart at that longitude, unlike the 2003 Halloween storms scenario. During minimum-phase there were too few emergences to determine multi-mode warped toroid patterns in longitude. A new emergence within AR12673 produced a complex/non-potential structure, which led to rapid build-up of helicity and winding that triggered the biggest X-flare of SC-24. Such a minimum-phase storm can be forecast with only hours' lead-time. However, global patterns and local dynamics for a peak-phase storm, such as that from AR11263, behaved like 2003 Halloween storms, producing the second biggest X-flare of SC-24. AR11263 was present at the longitude where the North and South toroids tipped-away from each other. While global toroid patterns indicate that pre-storm features can be forecast with a lead-time of a few months,its application on observational data can be complicated by complex interactions with turbulent flows. Complex/non-potential field structure development hours before the storm are necessary for short term prediction. We infer that minimum-phase storms cannot be forecast accurately more than a few hours ahead, while flare-prone active regions in peak-phase may be anticipated much earlier, possibly months ahead from global toroid patterns.

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Keywords

Solar Cycle, Solar Activity

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This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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