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Nowcasting GDP in Parsimony Data Environment Using Bayesian Mixed Frequency VAR (Empirical Evidence from Syria)

Authors: Khder Alakkari;

Nowcasting GDP in Parsimony Data Environment Using Bayesian Mixed Frequency VAR (Empirical Evidence from Syria)

Abstract

Monitoring economic conditions in real-time or Nowcasting is among the most important tasks routinely performed by economists as it is important in describing the investment environment in any country. Nowcasting brings some key challenges that characterize modern frugal data analyses in developing countries, often referred to as the three (V)s. These include: the small number of continuously published time series (volume), the complexity of the data covering different sectors of the economy and being asynchronous with different frequency and accuracy to be published (variety), and the need to incorporate new information within months of its publication (velocity). In this article, we explored alternative ways to use Bayesian Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive (BMFVAR) models to address these challenges. The research found that BMFVAR can effectively handle the three (V)s and create real-time accurate probabilistic forecasts of the Syrian economic activity and, beyond that, a powerful narrative via scenario analysis.

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Keywords

Science, Q, Bayesian Analysis – Mixed Frequency – Parsimony Data – VAR Model – Nowcasting.

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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