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Les déterminants de la pauvreté au Maroc : Etude économétrique

Authors: ES-SALMANI, Mourad; ISMAILI, Safae; YOUBI IDRISSI, Zineb; BOUAYAD, M mounssef;

Les déterminants de la pauvreté au Maroc : Etude économétrique

Abstract

Depuis son indépendance, le Maroc s'est engagé à atteindre des objectifs visant à réaliser un taux de croissance économique élevé dans le but d'améliorer le niveau de vie de sa population, de ce fait, cet engagement permanent repose sur une stratégie qui vise à réduire le taux de pauvreté et à offrir une vie décente aux personnes vulnérables. Cependant, pour mettre en œuvre une stratégie efficace de lutte contre la pauvreté, il est essentiel de comprendre les facteurs qui contribuent à la pauvreté. À cet égard, Ce document vise à analyser la pauvreté au Maroc, à travers une étude économétrique de l’impact de l’éducation , de la croissance, de l’inflation et du chômage sur l’évolution de la pauvreté au Maroc, la modélisation ARDL nous a conduit à conclure que les chocs sur la variable de la dépense annuelle par personne (proxy de la pauvreté) à long terme peut se corriger avec une vitesse d’ajustement de presque 43% c'est-à-dire qu’à long terme les déséquilibres entre le proxy de la pauvreté et ses déterminants cités plus haut se compensent. Ainsi à court terme, le chômage, l’éducation et l’inflation ont un impact significatif et positif sur la pauvreté par contre une relation significative mais négative entre la croissance et la pauvreté. À long terme, la croissance, l’éducation et l’inflation n’ont aucun impact sur la pauvreté par contre le chômage exerce un effet positif sur la dépense annuelle par personne entre 1987 et 2018 au Maroc.

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Keywords

pauvreté; stationnarité; cointégration; soutenabilité; modélisation ARDL

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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