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Modelling underreported spatio-temporal crime events

نمذجة أحداث الجرائم المكانية والزمانية التي لم يتم الإبلاغ عنها بشكل كافٍ
Authors: Álvaro Riascos; Jose Sebastian Ñungo; Lucas Gómez Tobón; Mateo Dulce Rubio; Francisco Gómez Gómez;

Modelling underreported spatio-temporal crime events

Abstract

Crime observations are one of the principal inputs used by governments for designing citizens’ security strategies. However, crime measurements are obscured by underreporting biases, resulting in the so-called “dark figure of crime”. This work studies the possibility of recovering “true” crime and underreported incident rates over time using sequentially available daily data. For this, a novel underreporting model of spatiotemporal events based on the combinatorial multi-armed bandit framework was proposed. Through extensive simulations, the proposed methodology was validated for identifying the fundamental parameters of the proposed model: the “true” rates of incidence and underreporting of events. Once the proposed model was validated, crime data from a large city, Bogotá (Colombia), was used to estimate the “true” crime and underreporting rates. Our results suggest that this methodology could be used to rapidly estimate the underreporting rates of spatiotemporal events, which is a critical problem in public policy design.

Keywords

Public security, Economics, Social Sciences, Public Policy, FOS: Law, Adversarial Multi-Armed Bandits, Criminology, Colombia, Optimization of Multi-Armed Bandit Problems, Management Science and Operations Research, Decision Sciences, Anomaly Detection in High-Dimensional Data, FOS: Economics and business, Sociology, Artificial Intelligence, FOS: Mathematics, Humans, Econometrics, Contextual Bandits, Geography, Modeling the Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic, Modeling, Bandit Optimization, Computer science, FOS: Sociology, Government, Modeling and Simulation, Physical Sciences, Computer Science, Educational Personnel, Crime, Mathematics, Research Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
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7
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49
66
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