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Ensayos sobre la sabiduría de los grupos / Essays on the wisdom of crowd

Authors: Payyadakkath Meethale, Shijith Kumar;

Ensayos sobre la sabiduría de los grupos / Essays on the wisdom of crowd

Abstract

La presente tesis consta de tres ensayos. En conjunto, intentan investigar cómo emplear diferentes reglas de decisión y mecanismos de agregación para mejorar la precisión del juicio colectivo en las aplicaciones de la sabiduría de los grupos. El primer capítulo se centra en el área de aplicación de la innovación abierta y compara el rendimiento de las reglas de decisión más utilizadas (reglas de puntuación y clasificación) para la evaluación y selección de ideas. Los resultados indican que la sabiduría de los grupos extraída mediante la regla de puntuación supera a la sabiduría de los grupos derivada mediante la regla de clasificación en cuanto a la probabilidad de seleccionar las ideas de mayor calidad. Desde el punto de vista de la gestión, este estudio proporciona orientación para la elección del proceso de evaluación de ideas y, por tanto, para el diseño de iniciativas de innovación abierta. El segundo y el tercer capítulo se centran en el área de aplicación del pronóstico por juicio e investigan un contexto importante de entornos de pronóstico caracterizados por rupturas estructurales. El segundo capítulo demuestra la presencia de sesgos sistemáticos (infra y sobrepronóstico) en los juicios de pronóstico en presencia de rupturas estructurales. Además, este capítulo propone una regla de recorte asimétrica novedosa y eficaz de agregación de pronósticos y prescribe dos métodos de conjunto de pronósticos para aprovechar dichos pronósticos agregados para mejorar el rendimiento de los pronósticos. En el capítulo 3 se comprueba el rendimiento de los métodos de conjuntos de pronóstico propuestos en condiciones ampliadas y se proponen mejoras en uno de los métodos de conjuntos propuestos. El objetivo de la tesis es desplegar las reglas de decisión y la heurística de agregación demostrando las posibles limitaciones cognitivas y los sesgos del decisor y, además, prescribe mecanismos de agregación para mejorar la calidad de las decisiones. This dissertation consists of three essays. These essays together attempt to investigate on how to use different decision rules and aggregation mechanisms to improve collective judgment accuracy in wisdom of crowd applications. The first chapter focusses on the application area of open innovation and compares the performance of commonly used decision rules (scoring and ranking rules) for idea evaluation & selection. The results suggest that the crowd wisdom extracted using the scoring rule outperforms the crowd wisdom derived using ranking rule in terms of the likelihood of selecting the highest-quality ideas. From a managerial perspective, this study provides guidance for the choice of idea evaluation process and thereby the design of open innovation initiatives. The second and the third chapters focus on the application area of judgmental forecasting and investigate an important context, that of forecasting environments characterized by structural breaks. The second chapter demonstrates the presence of systematic biases (under and over forecasting) in forecast judgments under the presence of structural breaks. Further, this chapter proposes a novel and effective asymmetric trimming rule of forecast aggregation and prescribes two forecast ensemble methods to leverage such aggregated forecasts and improve forecast performance. Chapter 3 further tests the performance of the proposed forecast ensemble methods under extended conditions and suggests improvements to one of the proposed ensemble methods. Overall, the dissertation aims to unfold decision rules and aggregation heuristics by demonstrating potential cognitive limitations and biases of the decision maker and further, prescribes aggregation mechanisms to improve decision quality.

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Keywords

Judgmental Forecasting, Decision rules & aggregation mechanisms, Wisdom of crowd, Idea Evaluation & Selection, Idea Evaluation & Selection, Decision rules & aggregation mechanisms

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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