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Un estudio prospectivo de la dinámica demográfica de los investigadores en Venezuela (1990-2025)

Authors: Zavarce, Fredy; Guerra, Wilfredo; Monasterio, Dilia; Marcano, Luis; Chacón, Prudencio; Cabezuelo, Víctor;

Un estudio prospectivo de la dinámica demográfica de los investigadores en Venezuela (1990-2025)

Abstract

La fase postpandemia plantea la urgente necesidad de proyectar el número total de investigadores y, considerando las clases de edades, visualizar su potencial participación en el desarrollo de la investigación necesaria en los próximos años para hacer posible la solución de las graves dificultades globales provocadas por el SARS-CoV-2. En este sentido, el objetivo del estudio es explicar la dinámica demográfica de la población de los investigadores en Venezuela. El estudio se basa en una serie temporal del período comprendido entre 1990-2020. Para obtener el modelo del comportamiento de la población, utilizamos un enfoque de análisis estadístico para pronosticar, con base en valores de series de tiempo, cómo son y podrían ser las estimaciones actuales y futuras de la estructura promedio de los investigadores en el país. Estos análisis mostraron que la estacionalidad sin precedentes de las series temporales del período analizado responde fundamentalmente a factores como la situación económica, social y política del país. Ello combinado con la propagación de la pandemia. Como resultado se determinó cómo todos los factores pudieron afectar su crecimiento relativo. De tal manera que se construyó un modelo matemático, derivado de herramientas y técnicas prospectivas, el cual permitió observar su comportamiento en el tiempo, así como también proyectar algunos escenarios probables emergentes derivados del análisis de tendencia y estacionalidad de la serie temporal seleccionada.

Keywords

Investigadores; prospectiva; estacionalidad; tendencia; series de tiempo, Investigadores; prospectiva; estacionalidad; tendencia; series de tiempo, Researchers; prospective; seasonality; trend; time series

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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