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Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin tümü ve yirmi altı alt bölgesi için hem uzun hem kısa dönemde işsizlik ve enflasyon ilişkisinin, Phillips eğrisi kuramına uygun olup olmadığının ortaya konulmasını amaçlanmıştır. İşsizlik, Türkiye genelinde makroekonomik bir problem olması ile birlikte bölgeler bazında da incelenmesi gereken bir olgudur. Bu sebeple ekonominin tümü için tek bir Phillips eğrisi incelenmesinin yanında her bölge için farklı Phillips eğrisi ilişkilerinin olabileceği düşünülmelidir. Buna göre bu çalışmadaki amaç, Türkiye’de yirmi altı bölge için Düzey 2 seviyesinde kısa ve uzun dönem Phillips eğrisi ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmada analiz yapmak için 2005-2019 yılları arasında enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve GSYİH verileri kullanılmış; sırasıyla enflasyon, işsizlik ve çıktı açıklarında Hodrick-Prescott filtrelemesi yapılmıştır. Çalışmada kısa ve uzun vadeli sonuçları elde etmek için Panel ARDL yöntemi seçilmiştir. Bu yöntem ayrıca Türkiye gibi veri sıkıntısının yaşandığı ekonomiler için veri setinin güçlendirilmesi amacıyla tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, negatif eğimli kısa vadeli Phillips eğrisini doğrulayan kısa dönemde enflasyon ile işsizlik oranı arasında bir ilişki varken, uzun dönemde bu iki değişken arasında ilişki bulunamamıştır. Bölge bazında ise 26 bölgenin 10’nda negatif eğimli kısa dönem Phillips eğrisi varlığı elde edilmiştir. In this study, it is intended to investigate whether the long term and short term relationship between unemployment and inflation is complied with Phillips curve theory for Turkey and its twenty-six sub districts. Although the unemployment is a macroeconomic issue in Turkey as a whole, it is a fact that needs to be investigated locally. Therefore, besides examining a single Phillips curve for the whole economy, it should be considered that there may be different Phillips curve relations for each region. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to reveal the existence of the short and long term Phillips curve relationship for the twenty-six NUTS 2 level regions in Turkey. In this study, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and GDP data used for between 2005 and 2019 years and inflation, unemployment and output gaps are filtered with Hodrick-Prescott method for analyzing. Panel ARDL method was chosen to obtain short and long term results in the study. This method is also preferred in order to strengthen the data set for economies that are experiencing shortages of data, such as Turkey. Based on the obtained results, there is a negative relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate in the short run that validates the negatively sloped short-term Phillips curve while no relationship between these both variables in the long run. In local basis, 10 out of 26 regions have the Phillips curve relation which shows negatively sloped relationship.

Bu makale Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Ekonometri Ana Bilim Dalı'nda kabul edilmiş olan ve aynı başlığı taşıyan yüksek lisans tez çalışmasından üretilmiştir. Çalışmada Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projesi (CÜBAP) kaynaklarından destek alınmıştır.