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Prévision de la vulnérabilité du secteur bancaire marocain : Stress tests retenus dans notre étude et ceux réalisés par Bank Al Maghrib

Authors: REZKI Sanaa; SOUIRI Mustapha;

Prévision de la vulnérabilité du secteur bancaire marocain : Stress tests retenus dans notre étude et ceux réalisés par Bank Al Maghrib

Abstract

Après le déclenchement de la crise sanitaire et ses retombées négatives sur l’économie marocaine, il était essentiel de prévoir la vulnérabilité du secteur bancaire marocain. Nous avons décidé de reprendre notre étude réalisée entre 2019 et début 2020 pour comparer les hypothèses du scénario pessimiste établi avec celles formulées par Bank Al Maghrib en 2021 qui se sont avérées moins sévères. La réalisation de notre étude a porté sur la construction d’un indice semestriel sur une période allant du mois de décembre 2005 au mois décembre 2018, sur l’estimation du modèle VECM et sur l’application des stress tests de trois types de scénarios avec des hypothèses différentes. Les résultats de notre étude montrent que le secteur bancaire marocain est moyennement vulnérable et fera preuve de sa résilience d’ici 2023. Néanmoins il risque de subir un choc de taux d’intérêt suite à un mouvement défavorable. Bank Al Maghrib est appelée donc à coordonner entre les variations du taux et les restrictions prudentielles.

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Keywords

Vulnérabilité bancaire ; Indice agrégé ; Sensibilité ; Prévision ; Stress tests

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This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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