This archive includes the driver files and NEON data used to generate and evaluate 35-day forecast of water temperature at six National Ecological Observatory Network Lakes. The archive also includes the forecast and the forecast evaluation (scores) files. The analysis period is from 2021-05-18 to 2021-10-22 noaa.zip NOAA Global Ensemble Forecasting System output generated at 00 UTC that has been subsetted and temporally downscaled from 6-hr to 1-hr for six lakes in the National Ecological Observatory Network. The files include all ensembles and the set of variables required to run the General Lake Model. The NEON siteID for the lakes are BARC, SUGG, CRAM, LIRO, PRLA, PRPO. See https://www.neonscience.org for more information about each lake. neonstore.zip NEON DP1.20264.001: Temperature at specific depth in surface water for BARC, SUGG, CRAM, LIRO, PRLA, and PRPO accessed on January 29, 2022 using the neonstore package on January 29, 2022. The following code was use to export the data from neonstore neonstore::neon_export(archive = "neonstore.zip", product = "DP1.20264.001", table = "TSD_30_min-basic") More information about the data product can be found here: https://data.neonscience.org/data-products/DP1.20264.001 The data include data from RELEASE-2022 and provisional data. The use of provisional data necessates the generation of this Zenado object to ensure reproducibility. Citations for data: NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network). Temperature at specific depth in surface water (DP1.20264.001). https://data.neonscience.org (accessed January 29, 2022) NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network). Temperature at specific depth in surface water, RELEASE-2022 (DP1.20264.001). https://doi.org/10.48443/g7bs-7j57. Dataset accessed from https://data.neonscience.org on January 29, 2022 targets.zip Processed NEON temperature data from neonstore.zip and Hensley 2022 for use in data assimilation and forecast scoring Hensley, RT 2022. NEON lakes Level 0 multisonde temperature data - 2021 ver 1. Environmental Data Initiative repository. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/fbbd2d5f59a8d92c6865d57e7abae379 (Accessed 25 January 2022). forecasts.zip Output of forecasts generated using FLARE with the General Lake Model and generated using the historical day-of-year mean for all BARC, SUGG, CRAM, LIRO, PRLA, and PRPO NEON lakes. scores.zip Summary statistics (mean and confidence intervals) and score (root mean squared error) for each output forecast. The scores are generated from the files in targets.zip and forecasts.zip

This work was supported by NSF grants DEB-1926388, CNS-1737424, DBI-1933016, DBI-1933102, DBI-1942280, and DEB-1926050.