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MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS AND EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS IN NIGERIA

Authors: Ubong Edem Effiong; Nnaemeka Peter Arinze; Joel Isaac Okon;

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS AND EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS IN NIGERIA

Abstract

{"references": ["[1]\tA. D. Crockett, & S. Nsouli, \"Exchange rate policies for developing countries\", Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 13, pp. 125\u2013143, 1997.", "[2]\tA. E. Akinlo, \"The stability of money demand in Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag approach\", Journal of Policy Modelling, Vol. 28, pp. 445-450, 2007.", "[3]\tB. Cocier, & J. elody, Exchange rate, inflation and macro-economic performance: Cross-country experience, Canada, Working paper 92-96, 1996.", "[4]\tB. W. Adeoye, & O. M. Saibu, \"Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria\", Asian Economic and Financial Review, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 544-562, 2014.", "[5]\tB. W. Adeoye, Financial sector development and economic growth: The Nigerian experience, Proceedings of Nigerian Economic Society (NES) Conference, 2007.", "[6]\tCentral Bank of Nigeria, CBN Statistical bulletin, Abuja, 2020.", "[7]\tF. Ullah, & A. Rauf, \"Impacts of macro-economic variables on growth: A panel data analysis\", Journal of Engineering Research, Vol. 41, No. 3, 2013.", "[8]\tG. del Castillo, Determination of nominal exchange rates: A survey of the literature, In: Mohsin S. Khan, Saleh M. Nsouli, and Chorng-Huey Wong (eds.), Macroeconomic Management Programs and Policies, Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2002.", "[9]\tG. G. Johnson, Formulation of exchange rate policies in adjustment programs. Occasional Paper No. 36, Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1985.", "[10]\tH. Kuncoro, \"Credible Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Stabilization\", Journal of Economics and Development Studies, Vol. 3, No. 20, pp. 7-18, 2015.", "[11]\tG. Luca, Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the opening economy. Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (GSE) Working Paper Series, No. 644, 2012.", "[12]\tK. Richard, \"No miracle here: Trade policy, fiscal policy and economic growth\", Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, Vol. 43, No. 7, pp. 1248-1269, 2007.", "[13]\tK. U. Idika, Nigeria's foreign exchange market; management and development and integral insight. Ibadan: Polygraphic Venture Journal, 1998.", "[14]\tL. An, & W. Sun, \"Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate: The case of Japan\", International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 15, pp. 271-283, 2008.", "[15]\tL. Coneri, & S. Ziba, \"Exchange rate modelling\", The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 6, No. 4, 2001."]}

Abstract: This paper aimed at examining the influence of monetary and fiscal policy on exchange rate movements in Nigeria. The study is conducted to cover the period 1985 to 2020 where adequate time series data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The methodology of the research followed the ‘ordinary least squares’ (OLS), threshold regression, impulse response function, and the variance decomposition. At the individual policy level, the OLS result indicated that only broad money supply as a monetary policy variable exerted a positive and significant effect on exchange rate movements. At the fiscal realm, debt and expenditure exerted a positive and significant effect on exchange rate movement while revenue exerted a negative and significant effect. From the threshold regression, the optimal growth rate of money supply, debt, government expenditure, and government revenue that will not aggravate exchange rate depreciation are 6.44%, 7.46%, 6.76%, and 9.14% respectively. The impulse response function reflected that a one-standard deviation shock in both monetary policy and fiscal policy variables causes exchange rate to explode both in the short run and in the long run. The variance decomposition for the monetary policy variables indicate that exchange rate is strongly endogenous both in the short run and in the long run as it constitutes 88.53% of its forecasted error variance in the tenth period. For the fiscal policy variables, exchange rate is only strongly endogenous in the short run as it accounts for 100% of its forecasted error variance in the first period, but it declined rapidly to 59.01% in the long run; with government revenue becoming strongly exogenous in predicting exchange rate in the long run. This calls for both monetary and fiscal policy measures to curb the rising depreciation of the naira. Keywords: Depreciation, Floating Exchange Rate Policy, Macroeconomic Management, Pegging. Title: MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS AND EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS IN NIGERIA Author: Ubong Edem Effiong, Nnaemeka Peter Arinze, Joel Isaac Okon International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics ISSN 2394-7322 Vol. 9, Issue 2, May 2022 - August 2022 Page No: 42-64 Novelty Journals Website: www.noveltyjournals.com Published Date: 13-June-2022 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6638437 Paper Download Link (Source) https://www.noveltyjournals.com/upload/paper/MONETARY%20AND%20FISCAL%20POLICY-13062022-7.pdf

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics, ISSN 2394-7322, Novelty Journals, Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

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https://www.noveltyjournals.com/upload/paper/MONETARY%20AND%20FISCAL%20POLICY-13062022-7.pdf, Depreciation, Floating Exchange Rate Policy, Macroeconomic Management, Pegging

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