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Analyse des Effets de la Crise de la COVID-19 sur la Persistance et l'Asymétrie de la Volatilité du Marché Boursier de Paris

Authors: ANZIAN, Kouamé Marcel;

Analyse des Effets de la Crise de la COVID-19 sur la Persistance et l'Asymétrie de la Volatilité du Marché Boursier de Paris

Abstract

L’objet de cet article est d’analyser l’impact de la crise de la COVID-19 sur le phénomène de persistance et d’asymétrie de la volatilité du marché boursier de Paris. Pour se faire, nous avons scindé notre série en deux périodes avant (du 03/01/2017 au 23/10/2021) et pendant (du 24/01/2020 au 21/10/2021) la crise de la COVID-19 sur la base d’apparition du premier cas de COVID-19 en France (24 Janvier 2020). Par la suite, nous avons appliqué un modèle GARCH pour capter le phénomène de persistance de la volatilité et les modèles EGARCH et GJR-GARH pour les effets asymétriques. Les conclusions de ce travail ont abouti dans un premier temps à la confirmation de l’augmentation de la persistance de la volatilité des indices CAC All-Share et CAC 40 et dans un second temps, à l’apparition d’un effet d’asymétrie dans le comportement de la volatilité. Ces résultats impliquent que les évènements improbables et extérieurs aux marchés financiers produisent des turbulences et des incertitudes qui conduisent le niveau de la volatilité à des pics très élevés suite aux fluctuations des valorisations des actifs financiers cotés à la bourse.

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Keywords

Volatilité conditionnelle ; Modélisation GARCH ; Persistance de la volatilité ; Effet d'asymétrie des chocs négatifs ; Crise de la COVID-19.

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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