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Population Space and Place
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https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.i...
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Understanding trajectories of population decline across rural and urban Europe: A sequence analysis

Authors: Niall Newsham; Francisco Rowe;

Understanding trajectories of population decline across rural and urban Europe: A sequence analysis

Abstract

AbstractPopulation decline is projected to become widespread in Europe, with the continental population set to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth within the next 5 years. This represents unfamiliar demographic territory. Despite this, literature on decline remains sparse and our understanding porous. Particular epistemological deficiencies stem from a lack of both cross‐national and temporal analyses of population decline. This study seeks to address these gaps through the novel application of sequence and cluster analysis techniques to examine variations in population decline trajectories since 2000 in 696 subnational areas across 33 European territories. The methodology allows for a holistic understanding of decline trajectories capturing differences in the ordering, timing, magnitude and spatial structure of population decline. We identify a typology of population decline distinguishing seven distinct pathways to depopulation and chart their geographies. Results revealed differentiated pathways of depopulation in continental subregions, with consistent and rapid declines in the east, persistent but moderate declines in central Europe, accelerating declines in the south and decelerating population declines in the west. Results also revealed differentiated patterns of depopulation across the rural–urban continuum, with urban and populous areas experiencing a deceleration in population decline, while decline accelerates or stabilises in rural areas. Small‐ and mid‐sized areas displayed heterogeneous depopulation trajectories, highlighting the importance of local contextual factors in influencing trajectories of population decline.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Biological sciences, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), Applications (stat.AP), Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Statistics - Applications

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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