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Revista de Ciencias Sociales
Article . 2021
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Modelos de fluctuaciones de precios agrícolas: Estudio comparativo de frutas tropicales frescas en Colombia

Authors: Leila Nayibe Ramírez Castañeda; Sandra Liliana Cristancho Cruz; José-Alejandro Cleves-Leguizamo;

Modelos de fluctuaciones de precios agrícolas: Estudio comparativo de frutas tropicales frescas en Colombia

Abstract

Los cultivos de maracuyá (Passiflora Edulis Sims F. Purpurea y F. Flavicarpa) y granadilla (Passiflora Ligularis L.) tienen gran interés económico y productivo en países tropicales, como lo evidencia el incremento sostenido del área de siembra para satisfacer la creciente demanda. Sin embargo, para minimizar los riesgos económicos de los inversionistas, se requiere adecuada planificación de los procesos productivos, estimando las oscilaciones de los precios. Precisamente, este artículo tiene como objetivo principal analizar las fluctuaciones de los precios de maracuyá y granadilla, con base en los métodos ARIMA (Autoregresive Integrated Moving Average); modelo de componentes no observados y modelos de regresión markovianos, para establecer el mejor desempeño a través de la minimización del criterio de información de Akaike. Para entender el fenómeno estocástico de la serie de tiempo de precios, se analizaron datos provenientes de estadísticas oficiales de estos cultivos en el período de observación 2011-2019. Los resultados demostraron que los modelos ARIMA explican en mejor medida y con mayor exactitud, las fluctuaciones de los precios. Se concluyó que estos modelos son una herramienta idónea para analizar el comportamiento de los precios, contribuyendo a la predicción de los mismos, información valiosa para los tomadores de decisiones.

Keywords

Political science (General), Social sciences (General), H1-99, pronósticos de precios, modelos markovianos, procesos estocásticos, passifloras, JA1-92

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This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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