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MODELO DE PREDICCIÓN DE POTENCIA SOLAR FOTOVOLTAICA APLICANDO ALGORITMOS GENÉTICOS

Authors: Borges Vasconcellos, Davel Eduardo.; Sierra Gil, Eduardo.; Arostegui Morell, Jorday.; Navas Llerena, Pedro Enrique.;

MODELO DE PREDICCIÓN DE POTENCIA SOLAR FOTOVOLTAICA APLICANDO ALGORITMOS GENÉTICOS

Abstract

Uno de los aspectos esenciales que determinan la calidad y eficiencia en el proceso de generación y transferencia de energía en un sistema electroenergético, lo constituye el poder pronosticar con antelación la potencia eléctrica a generar. Este problema adquiere gran complejidad cuando se trata de fuentes renovables de energía por la dependencia que en general tienen estas fuentes en su funcionamiento, de múltiples variables de carácter no lineal, incluidas las climatológicas. En el trabajo se presenta un modelo de predicción de potencia para parques solares fotovoltaicos, aplicando técnicas de inteligencia artificial, en particular algoritmos genéticos. En el mismo se propone un modelo de adaptabilidad, el cual es implementado con la ayuda de las estructuras de programación ofrecidas por el MATLAB versión 2014ª, utilizando las herramientas de programación de la Global Optimization Toolbox. Para validar el modelo se seleccionaron los datos del comportamiento histórico de generación de energía del Parque Solar Fotovoltaico de Imías, ubicado al norte de la provincia de Camagüey, en el municipio de Sierra de Cubitas. Los resultados de la aplicación soportada en el software implementado muestran que su empleo es favorable en el procedimiento de predicción de potencia eléctrica en un parque solar fotovoltaico, con un porcentaje de error medio absoluto (MAPE) inferior al 6%.

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