Here we follow the call to target measurement reliability as a key prerequisite for individual-level predictions in translational neuroscience by investigating i) longitudinal reliability at the individual and ii) group level, iii) cross-sectional reliability and iv) response predictability across experimental phases. 120 individuals performed a fear conditioning paradigm twice six month apart. Analyses of skin conductance responses, fear ratings and BOLD-fMRI with different data transformations and included numbers of trials were conducted. While longitudinal reliability was generally poor to moderate at the individual level, it was good for acquisition but not extinction at the group-level. Cross-sectional reliability was satisfactory. Higher responding in preceding phases predicted higher responding in subsequent experimental phases at a weak to moderate level depending on data specifications. In sum, the results suggest the feasibility of individual-level predictions for (very) short time intervals (e.g., cross-phases) while predictions for longer time intervals may be problematic.

The zip-folder contains the data, code, text, figures and tables necessary to create the manuscript with the title as indicated above which can be found as preprint at https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.15.484434v1. Please download the zip-folder and follow the instructions of the ReadMe-file to render the manuscript. This work was supported by grants awarded by the German Research foundation to TBL (CRC 58 on "Fear, Anxiety and Anxiety Disorders," Grant ID INST 211/633-2, Grant ID LO 1980/4-1 and Grant ID LO 1980/7-1).