We examined the distribution of the invasive alien tree Schinus molle (Peruvian pepper tree; Anacardiaceae) in South Africa, where it was planted over large areas. Localities of planted and naturalized trees were mapped along 5380 km of roads. A correlative modelling approach was used to produce profiles of present and future environmental conditions characterizing its planted and naturalized ranges. A cellular automata simulation model was used to estimate the dynamics of S. molle under future climates and different management scenarios.

We recorded all planted and self-established individuals along the roads. We also surveyed areas of radius 100m around each planted and naturalized individual to search for self-sown plants. Sometimes more than one individual was recorded at each location. Planted and naturalized individuals were recorded at 384 localities (2212 individuals) and 317 localities (1575 individuals) respectively.