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Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Advances
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Other literature type . 2021
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Analysis of the variables: Commodity price and discount rate on long-term open pit mine planning

تحليل المتغيرات: سعر السلعة ومعدل الخصم على تخطيط المناجم المفتوحة على المدى الطويل
Authors: Fontes MP; Koppe JC; Silva Neto JA;

Analysis of the variables: Commodity price and discount rate on long-term open pit mine planning

Abstract

Long-term open pit mine planning is a complex process which deals with numerous uncertainties, whether they are economical (commodity price, operational costs, production schedule, discount rate, inflation, among others); geological (grade distribution, density, hardness, etc); or physical constraints (property limits, environmental issues, legislation, etc). In this context, this paper aims to evaluate the effects of the variation of two important variables: commodity price and discount rate, with regard to the economic criterion, represented by the Net Present Value (NPV) of the mining business. Starting from a baseline value of US$ 80/t, the commodity (phosphate rock was used as a case study) price was varied within a 50% range, above and below the baseline value, obtained from historic values from the last 5 years. The discount rate values adopted in the analyses were 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, 16%, 18% and 20%. The results showed increases in the market price yielded higher NPV and life of mine values. On the other hand, it was noted that increases in the discount rate can significantly alter the NPV, materially reducing the value of the mining undertaking. It is also worth noting that, in contrast to more robust approaches such as Real Options Theory (ROT), traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods, such as NPV, assume variables, such as commodity price, to be fixed, which could either lead to the undervaluation or overvaluation of a project.

Keywords

Open Pit Mining, Economics, Discounted cash flow, Social Sciences, Application of Real Options in Investment Strategies, Oceanography, FOS: Economics and business, Engineering, Context (archaeology), Value (mathematics), Microeconomics, FOS: Mathematics, Production (economics), Econometrics, Operations Research in Mine Planning, Inflation (cosmology), Biology, Present value, Net present value, Baseline (sea), Physics, Statistics, Open pit Mine Planning; Commodity Price; Discount Rate; Net Present Value, Paleontology, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Control and Systems Engineering, Cash flow, Commodity, Physical Sciences, Theoretical physics, Finance, Mathematics

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
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