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Bayes Lines Tool (BLT): a SQL-script for analyzing diagnostic test results with an application to SARS-CoV-2-testing

Authors: Wouter Aukema; Bobby Rajesh Malhotra; Simon Goddek; Ulrike Kämmerer; Peter Borger; Kevin McKernan; Rainer Johannes Klement;

Bayes Lines Tool (BLT): a SQL-script for analyzing diagnostic test results with an application to SARS-CoV-2-testing

Abstract

The performance of diagnostic tests crucially depends on the disease prevalence, test sensitivity, and test specificity. However, these quantities are often not well known when tests are performed outside defined routine lab procedures which make the rating of the test results somewhat problematic. A current example is the mass testing taking place within the context of the world-wide SARS-CoV-2 crisis. Here, for the first time in history, laboratory test results have a dramatic impact on political decisions. Therefore, transparent, comprehensible, and reliable data is mandatory. It is in the nature of wet lab tests that their quality and outcome are influenced by multiple factors reducing their performance by handling procedures, underlying test protocols, and analytical reagents. These limitations in sensitivity and specificity have to be taken into account when calculating the real test results. As a resolution method, we have developed a Bayesian calculator, the Bayes Lines Tool (BLT), for analyzing disease prevalence, test sensitivity, test specificity, and, therefore, true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative numbers from official test outcome reports. The calculator performs a simple SQL (Structured Query Language) query and can easily be implemented on any system supporting SQL. We provide an example of influenza test results from California, USA, as well as two examples of SARS-CoV-2 test results from official government reports from The Netherlands and Germany-Bavaria, to illustrate the possible parameter space of prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity consistent with the observed data. Finally, we discuss this tool’s multiple applications, including its putative importance for informing policy decisions.

Keywords

Bayes, SQL, Software Tool Article, Diagnostic Tests, Routine, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Bayes Theorem, Sensitivity and Specificity, PCR Test, Humans

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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