A stochastic model of the social distancing interventions to contain the Covid-19 pandemic: comparison with the Italian case

A SIR-derived stochastic model is developed to study the spread of a virus such as the SARS-CoV-2 in a population, where relationships among individuals can be interrupted to simulate lockdowns of different intensity. Social distancing and limited hospitals capacity can also be taken into account. The properties of the model are discussed and suggestions to limit the impact of the pandemic, the number of hospitalised people and of deaths are derived. The model is also used to analyse the first and the beginning of the second wave of the contagion in Italy.

Keywords

numerical modelling, Covid-19, Monte Carlo simulations

Impact byBIP!

	selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	0
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Average
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Average
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Average