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Article . 2020
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Article . 2020
License: CC BY
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Influenza Vaccination Rates Predict 30% of the Variance in Covid-19 Related Deaths in Europe – A Modeling Approach

Authors: Walach, Harald; Klement, Rainer Johannes;

Influenza Vaccination Rates Predict 30% of the Variance in Covid-19 Related Deaths in Europe – A Modeling Approach

Abstract

There is a high variability in Covid-19 related deaths whose origin is unclear. We used three variables, percent test-standardized number of SARS-CoV-2-cases in a country, influenza-vaccination coverage in the elderly in a country and number of non-pharmaceutical interventions, to predict the number of population standardized Covid-19 related deaths in European countries, using generalized linear models. With these variables we can clarify approximately 60% of the variation in Covid-19 related deaths, with flu-vaccination coverage in the elderly being the most important predictor, explaining nearly 30% of the variation. Thus, the higher the influenza vaccination coverage in the elderly in a country, the more Covid-19 related deaths we see. Also, the more non-pharmaceutical interventions, the more deaths are likely, explaining about 5% of the variation. Other variables, like life-expectancy, rapidity of a country’s reaction to the epidemic and population size did not emerge as significant predictors. Thus, contrary to current opinion, flu-vaccination in the elderly might be an aggravating factor, when it comes to Covid-19 related deaths.

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Keywords

COVID-19; Flu vaccine; Generalized linear models; SARS-CoV-2

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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