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Тhe article identifies and systematizes the key aspects of the quantitative approach to forecasting program-targeted budgeting in budget funds management, the hallmark of which is the use of quantitative forecasting and causal modeling methods, which allows at least, minimize or completely eliminate the inconsistency and uncertainty of economic development priorities. According to the results of the analysis, it is recommended, when forecasting program-targeted budgeting in budgetary funds management, as the basis for optimizing financial decentralization, to introduce quantitative methods such as time series analysis (identifying past trends and continuing in the future) and causal or causal modeling (attempt to predict situation by examining the statistical relationship between various factors), if there is reason to believe that activity in the past a definite trend that can continue.