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Monte-Carlo simulation of dike stability based on a coupled steady-state hydro-stability model

Authors: van Woerkom, Teun A. A.;

Monte-Carlo simulation of dike stability based on a coupled steady-state hydro-stability model

Abstract

With a large network of dikes that in the future will protect up to 15% of the worlds population from flooding, more extreme river discharges that result from climate change will dramatically increase the flood risk of these protected societies. Precise calculations of dike stability under adverse loading conditions will become increasingly important, though the hydrological impacts on dike stability, particularly the effects of groundwater flow, are often oversimplified in stability calculations. In order to better take account of groundwater flow processes, we use a coupled hydro-stability model to indicate relations between the geometry, subsurface materials, groundwater hydrology and stability of a dike. To calculate the stability, the most adverse drained loading conditions are applied to soil slip and basal sliding mechanisms. A database created by an extensive Monte Carlo analysis provides evidence for relations between geometry, material characteristics, hydrology and stability for three different failure processes. The database contains the parameter combinations that resulted in a stability factor (F) closest to the critical conditon, e.g. closest to F=1. The database can be used to estimate failure probabilities for dike stretches that have not been assessed in detail, while including the uncertainties caused by a lack of in-situ data.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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