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Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind

Authors: Klotzbach, Philip J.; Bell, Michael M.; Bowen, Steven G.; Gibney, Ethan J.; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Schreck III, Carl J.;

Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind

Abstract

Abstract Atlantic hurricane seasons have a long history of causing significant financial impacts, with Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combining to incur more than 345 billion USD in direct economic damage during 2017–2018. While Michael’s damage was primarily wind and storm surge-driven, Florence’s and Harvey’s damage was predominantly rainfall and inland flood-driven. Several revised scales have been proposed to replace the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), which currently only categorizes the hurricane wind threat, while not explicitly handling the totality of storm impacts including storm surge and rainfall. However, most of these newly-proposed scales are not easily calculated in real-time, nor can they be reliably calculated historically. In particular, they depend on storm wind radii, which remain very uncertain. Herein, we analyze the relationship between normalized historical damage caused by continental United States (CONUS) landfalling hurricanes from 1900–2018 with both maximum sustained wind speed ( V max ) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). We show that MSLP is a more skillful predictor of normalized damage than V max , with a significantly higher rank correlation between normalized damage and MSLP ( r rank = 0.77) than between normalized damage and V max ( r rank = 0.66) for all CONUS landfalling hurricanes. MSLP has served as a much better predictor of hurricane damage in recent years than V max , with large hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) causing much more damage than anticipated from their SSHWS ranking. MSLP is also a more accurately-measured quantity than is V max , making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane’s potential damage.

Keywords

pressure, hurricane, wind, damage

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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