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Modelling Monthly Rainfall Data of Port Harcourt, Nigeria by Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methods

Authors: Harrison Etuk, Ette; Udo Moffat, Imoh; Ele Chims, Benjamin;

Modelling Monthly Rainfall Data of Port Harcourt, Nigeria by Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methods

Abstract

Brief review of literature of the well documented seasonal Box-Jenkins modelling is done. Rainfall is a seasonal phenomenon the world over. For illustrative purposes, monthly rainfall as measured in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, is modelled by a (5, 1, 0)x(0, 1, 1)12 seasonal ARIMA model. The time-plot shows no noticeable trend. The known and expected seasonality is clear from the plot. Seasonal (i.e. 12-point) differencing of the data is done, then a nonseasonal differencing is done of the seasonal differences. The correlogam of the resultant series reveals the expected 12-monthly seasonality, and the involvement of a seasonal moving average component in the first place and a nonseasonal autoregressive component of order 5. Hence the model mentioned above. The adequacy of the modelled has been established.Read Complete Article at ijSciences: V2201306196

Keywords

Seasonal Time Series, rainfall, ARIMA model, Port Harcourt

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This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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