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Status and future of numerical atmospheric aerosol prediction with a focus on data requirements

حالة ومستقبل التنبؤ العددي بالهباء الجوي مع التركيز على متطلبات البيانات
Authors: A. Benedetti; J. S. Reid; P. Knippertz; J. H. Marsham; J. H. Marsham; F. Di Giuseppe; S. Rémy; +27 Authors

Status and future of numerical atmospheric aerosol prediction with a focus on data requirements

Abstract

Abstract. Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation and military authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate services providers, and health professionals. Owing to the complexity of atmospheric aerosol processes and their sensitivity to the underlying meteorological conditions, the prediction of aerosol particle concentrations and properties in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework faces a number of challenges. The modeling of numerous aerosol-related parameters increases computational expense. Errors in aerosol prediction concern all processes involved in the aerosol life cycle including (a) errors on the source terms (for both anthropogenic and natural emissions), (b) errors directly dependent on the meteorology (e.g., mixing, transport, scavenging by precipitation), and (c) errors related to aerosol chemistry (e.g., nucleation, gas–aerosol partitioning, chemical transformation and growth, hygroscopicity). Finally, there are fundamental uncertainties and significant processing overhead in the diverse observations used for verification and assimilation within these systems. Indeed, a significant component of aerosol forecast development consists in streamlining aerosol-related observations and reducing the most important errors through model development and data assimilation. Aerosol particle observations from satellite- and ground-based platforms have been crucial to guide model development of the recent years and have been made more readily available for model evaluation and assimilation. However, for the sustainability of the aerosol particle prediction activities around the globe, it is crucial that quality aerosol observations continue to be made available from different platforms (space, near surface, and aircraft) and freely shared. This paper reviews current requirements for aerosol observations in the context of the operational activities carried out at various global and regional centers. While some of the requirements are equally applicable to aerosol–climate, the focus here is on global operational prediction of aerosol properties such as mass concentrations and optical parameters. It is also recognized that the term “requirements” is loosely used here given the diversity in global aerosol observing systems and that utilized data are typically not from operational sources. Most operational models are based on bulk schemes that do not predict the size distribution of the aerosol particles. Others are based on a mix of “bin” and bulk schemes with limited capability of simulating the size information. However the next generation of aerosol operational models will output both mass and number density concentration to provide a more complete description of the aerosol population. A brief overview of the state of the art is provided with an introduction on the importance of aerosol prediction activities. The criteria on which the requirements for aerosol observations are based are also outlined. Assimilation and evaluation aspects are discussed from the perspective of the user requirements.

Countries
Italy, United Kingdom, Germany, Finland, Germany, Germany, Italy, France, Spain
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, Aerosols' Impact on Climate and Hydrological Cycle, Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, 550, aerosol, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Numerical weather prediction, Health Effects of Air Pollution, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Atmospheric Aerosols and their Impacts, Satellite measurements, Atmospheric composition prediction, requirements, FIRE RADIATIVE POWER, Global and Planetary Change, MINERAL DUST, concentration (composition), Geography, Physics, REMOTE-SENSING OBSERVATIONS, Numerical prediction, Geology, VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND, particle size, Air quality index, OPTICAL DEPTH RETRIEVALS, Physical sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Chemistry, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences, Atmosphäre, Aerosol prediction, Aerosol particle, Aerosol Formation, QC1-999, aerosol formation, 530, Environmental science, [SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics], modelling, DATA ASSIMILATION, Meteorology, DUST EMISSION, QD1-999, data assimilation, Aerosol, Aerosols, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, ddc:550, prediction, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Earth sciences, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], atmosphere, Environmental Science, Data assimilation, SUMMERTIME WEST-AFRICA, numerical model, SAHELIAN DUST

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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