OVERVIEW: The BTV-3 Temporary Control Zone (TCZ) in south-west Scotland imposes movement restrictions on ruminants entering the Scottish Free Area. To estimate the potential impact of the TCZ on ruminant movements during September and October 2026, we used ScotEID livestock movement records from September and October 2021-2025 to quantify cattle and sheep movements originating from the TCZ and destined for one of three destination categories: the Scottish Free Area (S1), another location within the TCZ (S2), or England and Wales (S3) (see Figure 1). In a typical year during September and October, approximately 145,500 sheep and 40,600 cattle move from premises in the TCZ. Of these, around 16,700 sheep and 13,000 cattle move into the Scottish Free Area (S1) (see Figure 2). Movements into the Free Area represent a substantially greater proportion of cattle movements from the TCZ (32%) than of sheep movements (12%). Livestock markets play a central role in movements from the TCZ into the Scottish Free Area. Almost all sheep moving to the Free Area (98%) passed through a livestock market, while the corresponding proportion for cattle ranged from 69% to 88% across the study period.