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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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A parameter-free prediction for the present dark-energy equation of state, with the dilution law derived

Authors: Washburn;

A parameter-free prediction for the present dark-energy equation of state, with the dilution law derived

Abstract

The DESI second data release, combined with microwave-background and supernova data, prefers an evolving dark-energy equation of state at 2.8σ to 4.2σ, with present-day values w₀ between −0.84 and −0.67 depending on the supernova compilation. Nearly every theoretical response to that hint is a fitted model: given the data, a parameter is chosen. This paper registers the rarer move, made before the decisive data exist. A framework built on a unique recognition-cost functional, whose only distinguished scale is the golden ratio φ, yields without fitting any constant a single number for the present departure of the dark-energy equation of state from −1: δw(0) = φ⁻⁴ J(φ) = φ⁻³/(3φ + 2) = (13√5 − 29)/4 ≈ 0.017221, that is, w₀ = −1 + δw(0) ≈ −0.9828, with a proved band 0.015 < δw(0) < 0.018. The dilution premise is discharged here: this paper proves that φ⁻ⁿ is the unique dimension-uniform multiplicative occupancy law closed under the framework's self-recognition closure, that the named rivals (φ⁻²ⁿ, (1 + nφ)⁻¹, J(φ)ⁿ, 2⁻ⁿ) each fail the closure, and that the premise cannot be replaced by ledger conservation or by cost minimality, two no-go theorems. What remains conditional is stated at each step: the cosmic-aging kernel (the model's identifying structure) and the closure instantiation every forced ratio in the framework shares. Everything else in the chain is machine-checked theorem. What is frozen here is the framework's commitment, not a finished cosmology: the clean content is −0.985 < w₀ < −0.982, w(z) ≥ −1 at every redshift, and the thawing sign structure, plus two operational decision thresholds at |δw| = 0.005 and δw ≈ 0.03 marking where the mechanism would die. Under the framework's accumulation premise (the deviation accumulates linearly in the scale factor), the registration gains a second number and a curve, all machine-checked: w_a = −δw(0) ∈ (−0.018, −0.015), the thawing line w₀ + w_a = −1 exactly, and w(z) = −1 + δw(0)/(1 + z) with landmarks (the departure at z = 1 is exactly half the present one), a strictly monotone thaw, and a density ratio bounded everywhere by exp(3 δw(0)) < 1.056. This paper also maps that premise exactly rather than merely tagging it. Read as a dilution channel count, with each recognition channel attenuating by φ⁻¹ per rung of cosmic scale, the accumulation exponent is the channel count, and within this integer power-law family the premise is proved to hold if and only if d = 1: the single-channel law is the unique member affine in the expansion fraction u = z/(1 + z), the zero-channel law fails the kernel's own early-time limit, and every d ≥ 2 fails a proved second-difference probe across u ∈ {0, 1/4, 1/2}, while the rung machinery itself propagates but does not determine the count. The affinity condition is algebraically the premise itself, so this classifies the premise's content and its rivals; it does not reduce its strength. The open residue is the whole premise, exactly stated: that the aging charge dilutes through the single temporal channel of the forced 1 + 3 spacetime split. Until that identification is derived and the scale factor is constructed from the ledger, no Friedmann-level likelihood comparison with present data is possible; the paper reports where the numbers sit relative to the published DR2 fits without treating that placement as a test. Both current neighborhoods are excluded by the commitment: a convergence to w = −1 below precision 0.005, and the evolving-w best fits DESI currently reports, whose implied departure is ten to thirty-five times larger. The registration is prospective, written after DR2 and ahead of DESI DR3 (expected 2027), Euclid wide-area cosmology, and the Roman Space Telescope. Should future data converge near w₀ = −0.983 with no phantom crossing, the commitment is on record. The kernel carries a normalized machine-checked contract: amplitude identity, accumulator normalization, the asymptotic early boundary, and a non-vacuity witness, with no interior shape-selection clause anywhere in the contract. A canonical accumulator packages the cosmic-history provenance as an explicit hypothesis, with a compiled spoof shown to fail it. The temporal identification is attacked with certified-provenance discharge machinery and reaches named inclusion: the full premise stack is bundled exactly, and three certified walls delimit it (no constructor-trace channel converter exists; intensivity of the physical aging ratio is reduced to one named faithfulness clause with a compiled two-cell falsifier; the rung machinery certifiably cannot supply that ratio package). A Friedmann-level likelihood instrument stands behind the registration: a frozen, hash-stamped gate and parameter ledger, DESI DR2 BAO and masked Pantheon+ as named datasets, an independently controlled and fully interval-certified scorer, and a certified global-minimum fit by interval branch-and-bound, in progress at this writing. Its verdict adjudicates the conditional registered shape; it does not change the conditional status of the shape itself.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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