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Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Deterministic Log-CF Evaluation for Correlated Lognormal Sums

Authors: Nagy, Tamás;

Deterministic Log-CF Evaluation for Correlated Lognormal Sums

Abstract

The moment-based Latent representation of correlated lognormal sums (Nagy, 2026, The Exact Latent Distribution of Correlated Lognormal Sums) relies on scaled moments c_k = m_k/k! whose logarithms grow quadratically in k in non-degenerate positive-weight cases. This creates an extreme dynamic range in the Padé Toeplitz systems used by that implementation. The reported experiments become impractical for \sigma_{\max} > 0.8, but this paper does not prove a general condition-number asymptotic, an impossibility result, or an information-theoretic lower bound. The Smooth Latent Operator (Nagy, 2026, The Smooth Latent Operator: Parameter-Free Distributional Representations via Kernel Moment Recovery) mitigates the observed instability through regularization without eliminating it in the reported high-volatility cases. We show that the moment-based route expands an unsuitable formal generating function. The moments are the formal Taylor coefficients associated with M(z)=E[e^{zS}], which is infinite for positive real z in the non-degenerate lognormal setting and has zero Taylor radius at the origin. By contrast, the Hermite-chaos expansion — the Wiener polynomial chaos of S in the underlying Gaussian variables — uses coefficients that decay factorially. This occurs because the exponential function e^{Y} has a convergent Hermite series for Y \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2), with coefficients \sigma^k/k!. The resulting Hermite Latent \Lambda^H = \{c_\mathbf{k}^H\} lives in \ell^2 (no Gaussian weight is needed). The characteristic function is represented by a convergent inner product (no Padé resummation needed). The CDF can then be approximated by Fourier-cosine inversion (Fang and Oosterlee, 2008). The numerical conditioning and accuracy of the full evaluator are assessed here only in the reported test regimes. We interpret this as a grade-3 Latent: a representation choice guided by the problem's structure. For lognormal sums, the Hermite-chaos basis is a natural candidate because it matches the underlying Gaussian variables. This is a problem-specific motivation, not a universal basis-selection theorem. The exact CDF integral representation is determined by the finite generative latent (w, \mu, \Sigma) \in \mathbb{R}^{n(n+5)/2} for positive weights and positive-definite covariance. Its numerical evaluator uses Gauss-Hermite order, COS order, and a finite log-domain as explicit precision choices. The reported results motivate this route as a useful alternative to moment-based evaluation; rigorous parameter-selection and end-to-end convergence guarantees remain open. Maturity: Draft. Target venue: Mathematical Finance / Annals of Applied Probability. Part of The Latent research program. Related papers in this program: Rough Volatility, Universal.

Topic: fin_fenton_solved. Source: topics/fin_fenton_solved/paper.md. Status: Draft. Related topics: rough_volatility, universal.

Keywords

fin_fenton_solved, quantitative-finance, finance, risk-management, draft, latent-theory

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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