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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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BenchEWS: An Open Metrological Benchmark Infrastructure for the Reproducible Evaluation of Candidate Early-Warning Indicators

Authors: von Mallinckrodt, Bernd;

BenchEWS: An Open Metrological Benchmark Infrastructure for the Reproducible Evaluation of Candidate Early-Warning Indicators

Abstract

BenchEWS is an open metrological benchmark infrastructure for the transparent, reproducible, and indicator-neutral evaluation of candidate early-warning indicators (EWIs) for critical transitions. Rather than proposing a new early-warning indicator, BenchEWS provides a standardized evaluation framework that separates benchmark generation, blind execution, metric computation, and open publication. This architecture enables reproducible comparisons between established and newly proposed indicators under identical experimental conditions. The benchmark is explicitly designed according to a falsification-first philosophy. Candidate indicators—including the author’s own proposals (ADF and CRTI)—are treated as unvalidated hypotheses rather than validated methods and are evaluated using the same predefined benchmark protocol as all other candidates. This manuscript describes the benchmark architecture, evaluation protocol, reporting format, governance principles, and reproducibility requirements. It is intended as an open scientific infrastructure to support independent validation, replication, and community-driven development rather than as an empirical validation study. BenchEWS is released as an Open Science resource to encourage transparent benchmarking, reproducible research, and collaborative development of evaluation standards for early-warning research. Keywords (English) BenchEWS; Early-Warning Signals; Critical Transitions; Benchmarking; Metrology; Reproducibility; Open Science; Indicator Evaluation; Scientific Infrastructure; Falsification; Complex Systems; Dynamical Systems; Benchmark Protocol; Scientific Benchmark; Community Standards Beschreibung (Deutsch) BenchEWS ist eine offene metrologische Benchmark-Infrastruktur zur transparenten, reproduzierbaren und indikatorneutralen Bewertung von Frühwarnindikatoren (Early-Warning Indicators, EWI) für kritische Übergänge in komplexen Systemen. Anstatt einen neuen Frühwarnindikator vorzuschlagen, stellt BenchEWS eine standardisierte Evaluierungsumgebung bereit, welche Benchmark-Erzeugung, blinde Ausführung, Metrikberechnung und offene Veröffentlichung strikt voneinander trennt. Dadurch können etablierte und neu entwickelte Indikatoren unter identischen Bedingungen reproduzierbar miteinander verglichen werden. Die Architektur folgt konsequent einem Falsification-First-Ansatz. Auch die vom Autor vorgeschlagenen Kandidatenindikatoren (ADF und CRTI) werden ausdrücklich als unvalidierte Hypothesen behandelt und ohne Sonderstellung nach denselben Regeln wie alle anderen Verfahren bewertet. Dieses Manuskript beschreibt die Architektur, das Benchmark-Protokoll, das Berichtsformat, Governance-Prinzipien sowie Anforderungen an Reproduzierbarkeit und Offenheit. Ziel ist der Aufbau einer offenen wissenschaftlichen Infrastruktur zur unabhängigen Validierung, Replikation und gemeinschaftlichen Weiterentwicklung von Benchmarks im Bereich der Frühwarnforschung. BenchEWS wird als Open-Science-Ressource veröffentlicht, um transparente Benchmarking-Verfahren, reproduzierbare Forschung und offene wissenschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zu fördern. Schlagwörter (Deutsch) BenchEWS; Frühwarnsignale; Kritische Übergänge; Benchmarking; Metrologie; Reproduzierbarkeit; Open Science; Indikatorbewertung; Wissenschaftliche Infrastruktur; Falsifikation; Komplexe Systeme; Dynamische Systeme; Benchmark-Protokoll; Wissenschaftlicher Benchmark; Community-Standards

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average