
The deliverable represents the work conducted during phase 2 of the CLIVAS project in Southwest Finland. The report showcases the scoping, risk exploration, risk analysis, and risk assessment phases. The reader of this report will learn how CLIMAAX tools, which are open for everyone, can be used to analyze and assess regional climate risks, how a comprehensive regional climate risk assessment can be done, and how stakeholder cooperation enriches the risk assessment process. The report continues the work described in the first phase report. Phase 2 of the project focused heavily on two major contributions: the risk analyses made on agricultural drought and heavy rainfall, and the regional key risk assessment.Firstly, the report focuses on the fine-tuning and localization of the risk analyses on agricultural drought and heavy rainfall that began in phase 1. Using local data with comparative and synthetic analysys resulted in more precise and usable analyses. Agricultural drought risk is expected to become severe in the coming years and worsen towards the end of the century. Especially potato and spring wheat yields will suffer from drought. Heavy rainfalls will become more common and more severe in the future. There were some conflicting results between different climate models but, in the big picture, severity will increase in the future with increasing rainfalls in many parts of the region and decreasing rainfalls in some parts. Secondly, the report focuses on the first comprehensive climate risk assessment of the region where ten climate risks are assessed. The assessment was drafted in tight collaboration with stakeholders whose participation was key in ensuring its quality and credibility. The risks are assessed based on both current and future severity, urgency, and resilience capacity. The risks are then prioritized to help local stakeholders in deciding which of the adaptation measures should be conducted urgently. According to the key risk assessment, heavy rainfall, heatwaves, (agricultural) drought, and nature-related risks are the risks with the highest priority. The impacts of all of the risks with highest priority are already visible in the region and is expected to increase in future due to climate change. Key takeaways:- Agricultural drought will be a severe issue in the region. Some crops and areas will be impacted more than others.- Heavy rainfalls will increase in frequency and intensity. The increases are predicted to be from moderate to severe depending on the area and climate models.- The key risk assessment protocol and dashboard present an excellent formula for regions on how climate risks could be assessed, compared and prioritized.- Cooperation with local stakeholders and researchers is key in ensuring the relevance and credibility of the results gathered from the analysis conducted using the CLIMAAX tools.- Engaging local stakeholders in the processes is key and allows for transmission of silent knowledge, receiving feedback and development ideas, and increased ownership, knowledge and capacity of the stakeholders. The phase 3 of the project will focus on the drafting of adaptation measures and on including them to the regional climate roadmap which is currently being updated. Spreading awareness on regional climate risks to local stakeholders and decision-makers, and the planning of the continuation of regional adaptation planning after the project ends will also be of high importance in phase 3.
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