Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

An Outlier in the Fragile Five: A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of CDS Premiums

Authors: Özkan, Zafer; Dikkaya, Mehmet;

An Outlier in the Fragile Five: A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of CDS Premiums

Abstract

 This study, covering the period from 2010 to 2024 following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, aims to empirically investigate the relationship between CDS spreads and portfolio investments, exchange rates, inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical risk in the Fragile Five countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa). Using the Driscoll-Kraay robust estimator of the Panel Data Method in the analysis process, it was found that inflation is the strongest determinant of increasing country risk and that, contrary to expectations, portfolio investments increase the risk premium due to their speculative nature. The most impressive and original aspect of the study is that it proves Turkey stands out as a qualitative outlier from this group through a subgroup analysis that undermines the homogeneity of the “Fragile Five” definition. Indeed, when Turkey is removed from the sample, the emergence of geopolitical risk as significant for other countries and the reversal of the exchange rate effect strikingly reveal the structural differences within the group. Accordingly, the study emphasizes the necessity of country-specific policies targeting permanent disinflation and direct foreign investment, particularly for Turkey, rather than a uniform approach for the Fragile Five countries.

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average